Swedish Economy Shows Signs of Slowdown in February 2026 Barometer Reports

Recent economic barometer data from February 2026 depicts a noticeable slowdown in Sweden's economic momentum, marked by subdued industrial activity and mixed signals from retail and service sectors, yet tempered by cautious optimism in some areas.

The Konjunkturinstitutet's economic barometer fell to 100.1 in February from 102.8 in January, primarily driven by the manufacturing industry's more restrained production plans now below historical averages. However, inventory levels remain well balanced, mitigating more severe downturn concerns. Trade and services sectors also reported declines in confidence due to weaker sales volumes over the past quarter, though expectations for sales in the coming months show cautious optimism. In contrast, the construction sector defied the overall trend with more positive hiring intentions and improved outlooks on order books. Household confidence rose slightly with better perceptions of personal and national economies compared to the previous year, albeit still below normal levels.

Experts emphasize the importance of viewing these results over time rather than drawing conclusions from a single month. Johan Samuelsson, head of the Barometer unit at Konjunkturinstitutet, highlighted the complexities in interpreting short-term fluctuations and noted that tariff impacts appear minimal. While industrial caution could slow growth this year, recent GDP forecasts by institutions like SBAB remain positive.

An interesting sectoral development is the grocery retail industry's expectation of significantly reduced sales prices, contrasting with stable price expectations in other sectors. This trend may influence future inflation dynamics.

Overall, while the Swedish economy is losing some momentum with current activity below average, the situation is not indicative of crisis levels. The mixed economic signals reflect a cautious outlook amid hopes for future improvement as some indicators point to stabilizing demand and activity ahead.