Tidö Coalition Gains Ground as Sweden Faces Potential Snap Election Amid Government Stalemate

More than six weeks after Sweden’s general election, the country remains without a new government, with political negotiations between parties at a standstill. Magdalena Andersson's proposed Social Democratic single-party government failed to secure parliamentary approval. With three votes still pending, no resolution has been reached, raising the prospect of a snap election.

Recent opinion polling by Ipsos reveals a notable shift in public sentiment. The Tidö coalition, led by Ulf Kristersson's Moderaterna, now holds a clear lead over the red-green coalition supporting Andersson. According to the DN/Ipsos poll conducted mid-October, the Tidö parties lead by nearly four percentage points – the first time since October 2022 that Kristersson's coalition has surpassed the red-greens. Moderaterna’s support has surged to 24%, its highest level in over eight years, primarily drawing voters from the Liberalerna and Centerpartiet, which have declined to 6% support. Sverigedemokraterna has also bounced back to 19%, while Vänsterpartiet remains stable at 8%. Socialdemokraterna has slipped slightly to 27%, a figure below their election result, and faces further risk if the government continues unformed.

Opinion analyst Nicklas Källebring from Ipsos warns the drawn-out government formation benefits the Tidö coalition, cautioning this shift signals trouble for the red-green parties and may influence calls for an early election. The polling underscores a potential breakthrough for the Tidö parties should snap elections be called, challenging the narrative of Ulf Kristersson as a "lame duck" leader.

In summary, Sweden's ongoing political deadlock has coincided with rising support for the Tidö coalition and doubts over the Social Democrats’ position. With three parliamentary votes left and no government agreed upon, the possibility of a snap election looms large as both sides face mounting pressure to break the impasse.