Swedish Economy Poised to Withstand Impact of US Tariffs, Analysis Shows
Kommerskollegium's analysis shows that Sweden's economy can endure US tariffs with limited impact, supported by trade diversification and resilience.
- • Kommerskollegium analysis predicts limited overall impact on Sweden from US tariffs.
- • Certain Swedish industries may face challenges but overall economy remains resilient.
- • Sweden’s decreased exports to the US are expected to be offset by increased trade with Switzerland, Canada, and Mexico.
- • Benjamin Dousa states US and its neighbors would be the major losers from these trade policies.
Key details
A recent analysis conducted by Kommerskollegium underscores that the Swedish economy is expected to weather the effects of US-imposed tariffs over the coming years with minimal overall impact. According to findings presented in the report "Modelling a New Era in Trade" (2025), while certain Swedish industries may face challenges, the broader economic consequences for Sweden remain limited. The analysis highlights how Sweden's stable goods exports, combined with the potential for increased trade with other countries such as Switzerland, Canada, and Mexico, are anticipated to compensate for reduced exports to the US.
Benjamin Dousa, Sweden’s Minister for International Development Cooperation and Trade, emphasized that the primary losers from the US's current trade policies will ironically be the Americans themselves, followed by Canada and Mexico. This sentiment reflects the broader interpretation from Kommerskollegium’s simulation model showing limited downside risk for Sweden, even amid an intensifying global trade environment.
Both sources concur that Sweden’s diversified trade partnerships and economic resilience will allow it to offset some negative repercussions of diminished trade ties with the US. Despite the possibility of certain sectors suffering, the national economy remains robust. The increased trade flows expected with alternative markets further reinforce Sweden’s capacity to mitigate adverse effects from the tariffs.
This analysis arrives at a critical moment as global trade tensions remain elevated, providing reassurance regarding Sweden’s economic stability. The report and expert commentary furnish a comprehensive view of how strategic diversification helps shield Sweden from significant disruption amid changing international trade policies.