Riksdag Coalition Faces Challenges as Member Departures Reduce Parliamentary Strength

Sweden's ruling coalition in the Riksdag is currently experiencing a decrease in its parliamentary strength, raising concerns about its ability to govern effectively. The coalition, which includes Kristdemokraterna, Moderaterna, Sverigedemokraterna, and Liberalerna, has seen its total number of seats drop from 176 to 173 due to internal conflicts and party defections. A governing coalition requires at least 175 members to push through policies smoothly, making this decline significant.

Katja Nyberg, who was a member of Sverigedemokraterna, is the most recent politician to leave her party. She will continue to serve as a political independent—often called a "political vilde"—in the Riksdag. While independents like Nyberg often vote in line with their former parties, their departure nonetheless introduces uncertainty into the coalition’s stability. Other notable independents include Jamal El-Haj from Socialdemokraterna, Elsa Widding from Sverigedemokraterna, and Lorena Delgado Varas and Daniel Riazat from Vänsterpartiet.

This fragmentation reflects broader trends in Swedish politics, where right-wing populist parties like Sverigedemokraterna have gained prominence but also face internal challenges. Tim Bale, a political science professor at Queen Mary University of London, notes parallels between Sweden's Sverigedemokraterna and the UK's Reform UK, both movements focusing on immigration critiques and opposition to green policies. Bale emphasizes that right-wing populists maintain strong support on platforms like TikTok, particularly attracting young male voters, which complicates the political landscape further.

The combination of coalition seat losses and party member defections could limit the government’s legislative power, even though independents tend to support their former parties. The coalition now walks a fine line in maintaining majority control amid these shifts, with the next parliamentary decisions potentially highlighting the impact of these internal dynamics.