Nordea Revises Sweden's 2026 Growth Forecast Down to 2.6%, Slightly Above Government Estimate

May 15, 2026 1:03am

Nordea lowers Sweden's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.6%, still above the government's downgraded 2.3% projection amid Middle East conflict concerns.

Key details

• Nordea has revised down its GDP growth forecast for Sweden in 2026 from 3.3% to 2.6%.
• The Swedish government's 2026 growth forecast was recently downgraded from 2.8% to 2.3%.
• The government's downgrade reflects the economic impact of the war in the Middle East.
• Nordea's forecast of 2.6% remains slightly higher than the government's 2.3%.
• Economic uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions influenced the revisions.

Nordea, one of Sweden's leading banks, has revised its forecast for Sweden's GDP growth in 2026 downwards from an earlier estimate of 3.3% to 2.6%. This adjustment reflects concerns tied to global uncertainties but still projects a stronger growth rate than the Swedish government's own forecast. The government recently lowered its economic growth prediction for 2026 from 2.8% to 2.3%, largely attributing the downgrade to the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Despite the challenges highlighted by the government's outlook, Nordea's forecast suggests there remains a relatively robust economic trend in Sweden moving forward. This updated forecast follows a wave of reassessments influenced by geopolitical tensions and their ripple effects on trade and investment. Nordea's slightly more optimistic projection comes amidst cautious government estimates, signaling mixed sentiments in Sweden's economic outlook for the year ahead.

This article was translated and synthesized from Swedish sources, providing English-speaking readers with local perspectives.