Sweden Faces Volatile Electricity Prices This Winter Amid Quarterly Pricing Changes

The Swedish electricity market is poised for potential volatility this winter as a significant shift towards quarterly pricing begins in October 2025. This new pricing model will modify electricity rates every fifteen minutes, aiming to better balance supply and demand, particularly with the increasing reliance on renewable energy sources.

Experts are warning that consumers may face higher and more unpredictable electricity costs due to several underlying factors. According to Patrik Södersten, an electricity price analyst at Fortum, decreases in water levels in reservoirs coupled with issues within the nuclear sector—most notably, three of the six nuclear reactors being offline—will likely drive prices up. Anne By Nazemi from Elskling emphasizes the difficulty in forecasting prices as they will be heavily influenced by weather conditions, including cold temperatures and wind availability.

Moreover, a new fixed electricity price set by Norway at 40 öre per kWh, supplemented by government support, has raised concerns among Swedish analysts. They speculate that increased consumption in Norway could elevate prices across Sweden during peak hours. Adding to the complexity, the price disparity between northern and southern regions of Sweden is expected to persist, primarily due to limitations in transmission capacity. Analysts project that electricity prices in northern Sweden may stabilize around 20 euros per megawatt-hour, while those in the south could soar to between 60 and 70 euros per megawatt-hour until infrastructure improvements address these disparities.