Sweden Faces Historic Low Birth Rate Threatening Welfare System

Sweden is grappling with a critical demographic challenge as its birth rate has dropped to a historic low of 1.4 children per woman, the lowest since records began in the 1700s. This alarming decline has prompted the Swedish government to launch an investigation into the implications for the welfare state. Social Minister Jakob Forssmed emphasized the country's reliance on children for sustaining society during a recent press conference, underscoring the urgency of addressing this issue.

The current birth rate is far below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman needed for a sustainable population. According to Åsa Hansson, a national economist commissioned by the government, if current trends continue, Sweden could see its population shrink by up to four million by 2100. This demographic decline would severely impact the economy, potentially reducing the country's GDP by over 50% in worst-case scenarios while putting substantial pressure on welfare services due to fewer workers supporting an aging population.

Hansson highlights the complexity of the problem and stresses that there is no one-time fix. Instead, a child-friendly policy approach is essential to remove barriers to fertility and promote population growth. The government report details six potential demographic scenarios, all underscoring the urgency of proactive measures to sustain Sweden’s economic and social well-being.

This silent crisis threatens not only Sweden’s population size but also the long-term viability of its welfare system, prompting calls for immediate action from policymakers to secure a stable future.