Sweden Anticipates Record Grain Harvest in 2025 Driven by Winter Wheat Surge
Sweden forecasts a record grain harvest for 2025, primarily driven by increased winter wheat production.
Key Points
- • Grain harvest predicted to reach 5.9 million tons in 2025, a 14% increase from 2024.
- • Höstvete expected to contribute 3.3 million tons, 17% above the 2020s average.
- • While the harvest is significant, global wheat prices have dropped 20%, affecting profitability.
- • Total oilseed harvest projected at 0.3 million tons, a 21% increase.
Sweden is on track to achieve a remarkable grain harvest in 2025, projected at nearly 5.9 million tons—a 14% increase from the previous year and the highest yield in five years. This upswing is significantly attributed to höstvete (winter wheat), which is set to contribute around 3.3 million tons to the overall harvest, representing a 17% increase over the average yields recorded in the 2020s.
The surge in production is linked to an unprecedented area planted with winter wheat, which was aided by particularly favorable weather conditions during the growing season. Simon Lind from the Swedish Board of Agriculture confirmed that the expansion of planted areas has played a crucial role in reaching these encouraging production estimates. However, there are inherent risks; potential autumn rains or unexpected frosts could still impact the harvest outcomes.
In addition to the growth in wheat production, Sweden's total oilseed harvest is expected to also witness an increase, projected at 0.3 million tons, which marks a 21% rise from the previous year. Of this crop, winter rapeseed comprises a notable 86% of the planted area.
Despite these positive trends, challenges loom on the horizon for farmers. Lars-Erik Lundkvist from LRF cautioned that while the considerable harvest offers substantial benefits for farmers, the economy, and consumers—as Sweden prepares for potential grain exports—the profitability of this harvest is jeopardized. He pointed out that the global market prices for wheat have dropped by 20% in comparison to last year, which could diminish the financial returns for local farmers despite increased production.
Preliminary results from the current harvest are expected to be released in November, with detailed findings and confirmations anticipated by spring 2026, once all data has been thoroughly collected and analyzed. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, reflecting both the successes and challenges faced by the agricultural sector as it navigates the complexities of market dynamics and environmental factors.