Moderaterna Surge in Sweden’s Industrial Towns as Socialdemokraterna and Sverigedemokraterna Lose Ground

The 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections have revealed a significant shift in voter preferences within the country’s traditional industrial towns, such as Hagfors in Värmland. Analysis shows that the Moderaterna party has notably increased its support in these areas, while the historically dominant Socialdemokraterna and the Sverigedemokraterna have experienced declines.

According to a detailed SVT survey covering 15 municipalities in Mellansverige—regions historically aligned with Socialdemokraterna—similar trends were observed across the board. The data indicates that Socialdemokraterna’s vote share dropped by 5.3 percentage points, sliding from 39.2% in 2018 to 33.2% in 2026. Sverigedemokraterna peaked in 2022 at 28.1% but fell to 24.9% in the latest election cycle. Conversely, Moderaterna increased its support from 12.9% in 2018 to a projected 16.5% in 2026, marking a considerable political realignment in these industrial communities.

A voter from Hagfors, Christer West, exemplified this political shift. He originally supported Socialdemokraterna, later switched to Sverigedemokraterna, and recently aligned with Liberalerna to back the Tidö government. West praised the current administration, citing, “Tidö has done a great job.”

This transformation signifies a weakening of Socialdemokraterna’s traditional stronghold and suggests that Moderaterna’s policies may be gaining traction among industrial town voters. These new voter movements contrast with broader national election results, where the coalition led by Socialdemokraterna, Vänsterpartiet, Miljöpartiet, and Centerpartiet holds a slim majority over the alliance of Moderaterna, Sverigedemokraterna, Kristdemokraterna, and Liberalerna.

The emerging trends in industrial towns point to an evolving political landscape, with Moderaterna capitalizing on declining support for previously dominant parties. These regional shifts will likely influence national political strategies as the new parliament convenes and prepares to elect government leadership later this month.