Mistra Carbon Exit Research Highlights Progress and Challenges on Sweden's Path to Net-Zero Emissions

New findings from the eight-year Mistra Carbon Exit program reveal that Sweden possesses the necessary knowledge and technology to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from buildings, transport, and transport infrastructure sectors responsible for around 75% of the country's emissions. The research, led by climate expert Lars Zetterberg of IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet and vice program manager Filip Johnsson of Chalmers University, shows that known technologies can halve emissions, with only marginal cost increases passed to consumers — such as a mere 0.5% rise in the price of finished apartments despite carbon-neutral cement costing nearly twice as much as traditional alternatives.

However, while existing technologies offer major gains, achieving near-zero emissions will require the adoption of more transformative and complex innovations, which entail greater costs and financial risks. The researchers emphasize the importance of early strategic decisions that influence entire value chains and caution that stronger and more predictable climate policies are essential to incentivize this transition.

Zetterberg warns that without clear and ambitious climate policies, European industry risks losing competitive ground to global leaders like China and the United States. The uncertain geopolitical climate and Europe's trade dependencies have reshaped the landscape for EU climate policy, but the researchers remain confident that Europe’s green transition will continue and ultimately reduce import dependency, strengthening domestic industries.

Both researchers highlight the critical role of Swedish politicians in fostering long-term investments and providing clear political directives at the EU and national levels to promote consistent and ambitious climate policies. A sustained commitment to these policies is vital to spur technological development and support industries through the challenges of the transition toward carbon neutrality.