Liberalerna Faces Historic Low Support and Election Threshold Threat

The Liberalerna party continues to face a severe electoral crisis as it battles to surpass the 4% parliamentary threshold ahead of the elections, with recent polls showing the party's support at unprecedented lows. According to the latest DN/Ipsos poll, Liberalerna's backing is at just 2%, the lowest in the 47-year history of this survey, while another poll registers even lower figures at 1.4%. This decline marks the party's toughest opinion position ever, with significant voter losses primarily to Moderaterna, Socialdemokraterna, and Centerpartiet. Only one-third of 2022 voters remain loyal to Liberalerna.

This grim outlook jeopardizes the Tidöpartierna coalition's parliamentary majority, as opposition parties hold a 7% lead with a combined projected 193 seats, while the coalition—including Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna, and Sverigedemokraterna—would secure just 156 seats if elections were held today, with Liberalerna potentially excluded from parliament.

In this context, Henrik Vinge, vice chairman of Sverigedemokraterna (SD), has not ruled out helping Liberalerna surpass the threshold to maintain coalition strength, despite Liberalerna's leader, Simona Mohamsson, refusing to support a government containing SD ministers due to ideological differences. Vinge noted the necessity of all four Tidöpartierna parties for a majority and highlighted the need for strategic discussions to address these electoral challenges.

With eight months until the elections, analysts caution that while the situation is dire for Liberalerna and the coalition, voter sentiment could shift significantly as the campaign progresses.